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The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a pivotal journey to the US capital to meet US President Donald Trump. This constitutes the initial face-to-face meeting for the two figures after an extended period of rising tensions and heated rhetoric.

Topics for Talks

The situation in Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, regional stability, and American military actions on suspected drug vessels are set to be high on the agenda when they gather at the White House on Tuesday.

A History of Tensions

Although the two men were polite in a telephone conversation after a January American action, Petro has since said he feels there is a "serious risk" of armed intervention against Colombia. Trump, for his part, has previously remarked that a military operation in Colombia "seems like a good idea".

The upcoming summit follows months of the two presidents exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly criticised ongoing US strikes on suspected narco-vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the US administration's immigration policies.

"He changed his attitude," Trump was quoted as stating ahead of the Washington talks.

Points of Contention

On the US side, Trump has charged Petro's government of not doing enough to stop the flow of cocaine toward the United States, and has pledged to expand strikes to terrestrial objectives throughout the area.

But, the acrimony seemed to subside following a "polite" phone call involving the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later described as an complete reversal "from both sides".

Diplomatic Bridge

According to diplomatic sources, one man – US Senator Rand Paul – was instrumental in setting up the dialogue. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our relations were going in the wrong way," the lawmaker reportedly. "And I'd like to see our relationship to get better."

Border Security and the Guerrilla Group

Ahead of Tuesday's meeting, Colombian stated that much of the discussion would center on mutual US and Colombian concerns over stability in the neighboring country, with which Colombia has an extensive border.

A significant portion of that border is controlled of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, founded in the 1960s, dominates narco-trade, extortion, smuggling, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and allegedly works with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.

From the US perspective, addressing the threat of the ELN will be vital to ensuring safety for US firms involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts point out that the ELN has the capacity to spoil investment plans by targeting foreign investors and staff, as it has previously done in Colombia.

Drug War Collaboration

An similarly urgent issue for the two leaders will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest producer of the narcotic. In November, Petro instituted a halt on information exchange with US security agencies after comments from Washington.

The US has, conversely, formally designated Colombia as a country that has "not met its obligations" in combating the narcotics trade. It has also imposed restrictions on figures in Petro's government, encompassing the president and members of his family.

"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," said a regional security expert. "The threat to sever Colombian intelligence could also weaken all investigations."

Possible Scenarios

Despite several areas for collaboration, the potential for a clash exists. "The US President's stance can be volatile," observed a former diplomat. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avoid Trump's anger... However, it's unpredictable."

But for Petro, even a contentious meeting could be beneficial. His presidential term ends in the coming months, and the results of the meeting could impact the political future of his chosen candidate.

"To an extent, he's kind of in a favorable position," said a regional expert. "If it goes well undermines criticism... If talks sour, he's protecting national sovereignty. He could use that in his favor."