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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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