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"I'll remain in the same office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, adding that if the interview went well, he might invite the interviewer into Downing Street for a follow-up conversation in 2026.

There is never any time off for prime ministers. Shortly before our chat started, Sir Keir had been in calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to work out what on earth had occurred in Venezuela, where his big ally, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our interview, which was much longer than normal, had concluded, Maduro had been indicted in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the new year begins, Starmer seems to have had a kind of a refresh. Perhaps even just a bit of a rest with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's rural getaway.

That certainly seemed to have left him in a more positive mood than at the difficult conclusion of 2025, a terrible annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters being unrealistic if they think his political fate are poised to get better?

Internal Doubts

The harsh truth for the prime minister is that many of his fellow MPs believe he's underperforming at his job. A faction of them would sooner take a risk and get him out this year.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Multiple times he stated he'd be "judged at the next election", arguing nobody would strip his term from him – despite the fact that the optimal path of stopping Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 could be for Labour to switch leader.

"We are in the struggle of our lifetime and I aim to guide the party," he affirmed.

Upcoming Local Votes

The challenge for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised well ahead of then – in a mega set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to contend, perhaps excessively, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – to some extent. But although he may not want to admit it, No 10 will be evaluated by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir suggesting that there were no situation under which he would walk away, should one of his colleagues challenged him for the job, if those elections be very poor for Labour.

An Optimistic Outlook

He tried to explain his unpopularity by saying the electorate was reasonably eager for things to improve. He sought to convince me, and the nation, that 2026 would be a change.

The economic situation would improve despite rising unemployment, he claimed, when policies the administration put in place during their first turbulent year began to show results.

• He vowed to empty asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, but he did not set a specific date on that.
• He said too, with the caveat that it was not a done deal, that a peace agreement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any point since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He revealed for the first occasion that Western partners were now considering how to combine US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to guard a potential peace.

His core argument is that in 2026 the country will "reach a turning point".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have communicated with more energy than I've seen from him for a while – more relaxed, perhaps, with more time to talk.

But despite encountering demands from various quarters for a bolder approach, with increased political direction, more urgency, more speed and more immediacy, his points were repeated ones.

Given that he is in this much political peril, is a different approach required a new narrative?

No administration, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for an extended period, gets everything its as planned.

Sir Keir's problems are not just because governing is challenging, but because he and his team have erred, even in the recent past.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM expressed regret that he regretted saying he was "happy" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when statements he'd made in the past – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Sir Keir blamed "the process" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is courting evident political risks as the year unfolds. His close relationship with the US president acquires a new risk after Trump's intervention on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who was against the war in Iraq, over his career, the notion he would be comfortable with this kind of intervention seems far-fetched.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He stated he was a "lifelong advocate of international law" but the public "just haven't got the complete details at the moment".

Some called for him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the administration is expected to face more pressure to give an explicit view in Parliament in the next few days.

And there has long been bubbling pressure in the Labour party to undo or remake some of the results of Brexit.

Sir Keir rejects he's pursuing that, but his new specific commitment to align more closely with the single market – the huge economic European trading zone – will probably elicit accusations that he is reneging on his pledge never to try to overturn the decisions that followed Brexit.

A move to cosy up to more of the single market will please some on his side of the party, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to