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Initially, the former US president seemed to embrace a firm approach on the Ukrainian conflict. After issuing threats of "significant ramifications" in August should Putin continued obstructing ceasefire negotiations, Trump eventually introduced considerable penalties on Russia's primary petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This action significantly impacted the Russian leader's capacity to finance his war effort in the region.

However, through his latest detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, which was created by American and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has clearly reverted to his pro-Putin stance.

Rewarding Military Action

The former president's proposal would essentially reward the Russian leader for occupying Ukraine while leaving the country's democracy in jeopardy. Although ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the proposal in reality undermine that essential independence. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate experience, the former president continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, implying ceding Russia a part of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the leader. But, Putin's war is not merely about occupying a destroyed region of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. It is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to weaken it so it stops functions as an appealing model for the Russian people of the responsible leadership that his deepening autocracy prevents them.

Land Surrenders

Although maintaining in place the already split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the initiative would require Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a ten years of conflict, this surrender would make Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously undermined.

This region is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the fortified defensive positions that represent a critical impediment to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, providing Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital if he subsequently decide to renew the conflict.

Armed Forces Restrictions

Then, in a move that would make renewed conflict easier for the Russian military, Trump would require the nation to diminish the scale of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's plan places no similar constraints on the invading army.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's campaign to depict the nation's democratically elected government as radicals, the plan states: "Any extremist ideology and practices must be condemned and prohibited." As if to underscore this element, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump sets no requirement that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by holding votes in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative includes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its position of peaceful relations towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". However considering that Putin has broken equivalent treaties in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a handback of captured land in the region to the government – why should the international community have confidence in this commitment this time?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international security guarantees. Although the plan threatens a "decisive coordinated military response" in case the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars range from vague to alarming. The plan would not just deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively commanded by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Russia from replenishing his weakened troops, restocking, and attacking again.

World Response

A separate side agreement reportedly would grant the nation with a similar to NATO security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an attack jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a military response. However different from a strong national defense – Ukraine's best protection against future invasion – the credibility of the side agreement would depend on the commitment of alliance members, like Trump, to respond militarily to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not